Exploring Philippine Futures Through Intergenerational Lenses: Four Alternative Scenarios of the AmBisyon Natin 2040 Vision

Abstract

This study probes the alternative futures of the Philippines through the lens of AmBisyon Natin 2040, the nation's long-term vision for a matatag (strongly rooted), maginhawa (comfortable), at panatag (secure) na buhay. Utilizing Jim Dator's Four Scenario Archetypes-Growth, Collapse, Discipline, and Transformation - the research constructs four plausible, divergent futures to support more adaptive, inclusive, and forward-looking development planning. Drawing on intergenerational Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) with participants from Generation Z, Millennials, and Generation X, the study applies participatory foresight tools including the Futures Triangle, scenario matrix plotting, and narrative co-creation to capture how each cohort’s distinct experiences, values and priorities shaped the drivers, barriers and trade-offs embedded in each scenario. Incorporating intergenerational perspectives strengthened both the credibility and relevance of the scenarios. Generation Z often pushed for forward-looking and innovation-oriented pathways, Millennials grounded the discussion with pragmatic system-level insights, while Generation X contributed historical awareness and stability-focused considerations. Together, these dynamics shaped the development and character of each archetype.

The Growth scenario affirms the current trajectory envisioned in AmBisyon Natin 2040, reflecting incremental improvements in governance, education, health, and digital infrastructure. It presents a future that is stable and moderately inclusive, yet still constrained by persistent structural inequalities.

The Collapse scenario envisions a breakdown of institutions, widespread disillusionment, and systemic dysfunction brought about by unaddressed political, economic, and environmental crises. It serves as a cautionary tale of neglecting present vulnerabilities and failing to build societal resilience.

The Discipline scenario imagines a tightly controlled society in which peace and stability are achieved through centralized governance, strict policies, and enforced conformity. It highlights the trade-offs between security and civic freedom, and the consequences of prioritizing order over participation.

The Transformation scenario presents a radically reimagined Philippines where inclusive innovation, decentralized governance, and cultural revitalization redefine national progress. It explores a break from the status quo, illustrating how deep systemic shifts-fueled by emerging technologies and social movements-can produce a more equitable, empowered, and regenerative society.

These narratives were translated into short-form animated videos to maximize accessibility, emotional resonance, and engagement across generations and sectors. In doing so, the study advances development communication by blending foresight and visual storytelling to foster public imagination, policy reflection, and futures literacy. It underscores the importance of integrating participatory, creative, and generationally diverse approaches into national planning processes, especially as the Philippines navigates uncertainty on the path to 2040.